Polo Live Case Study
Predict the flood. Break up the peak. Protect people first.
POLO-HF-001 freezes a pre-event HydroFlow scenario so forecast assumptions can later be compared with observed rainfall and runoff without moving the goalposts.
Locked central rainfall
6 in
Average over a 10,000 mi² stress-test area.
Modeled rainfall volume
1.043T gal
Calculated precipitation volume, not river flow.
Central modeled runoff
~365B gal
Uses a provisional 35% runoff coefficient; ~1.12M AF.
Forecast / model / observed
Keep the evidence layers separate
Storm guidance defines the prospective rainfall range. Forecasts change as the event evolves.
HydroFlow converts explicit assumptions into runoff, timing, detention and recovery sensitivity.
Post-event gauges and rainfall records will be used to score the frozen forecast run.
HydroFlow Basin Intelligence
Static geography. Live storm intelligence.
HydroFlow stores verified basin geometry locally and overlays changing rainfall, forecasts and gauges as live inputs. Continental source files are acquisition data, not runtime dependencies.
STEP 1
Official basin identity
STEP 2
Verified watershed geometry
STEP 3
Live rainfall
STEP 4
Runoff + timing
STEP 5
Detention + recovery
| Basin | Identity | Geometry | Rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santo Domingo / Comondú | CONAGUA ref. 0303 | VERIFICATION IN PROGRESS | IMERG integration next |
| Mulegé | CONAGUA ref. 0508 | VERIFICATION IN PROGRESS | IMERG integration next |
| Loreto | CONAGUA ref. 0611 | VERIFICATION IN PROGRESS | IMERG integration next |
Temporary screening boxes remain active until candidate polygons pass source, area and checksum verification. HydroFlow does not promote unverified geometry to operational status.
Cloud-first intake analysis
Preliminary intake candidate ranking
This screening score now runs inside HydroFlow, not QGIS. Version polo-intake-v1 weights normalized local flow concentration at 70% and local slope constructability at 30%. Elevation and upstream area remain evidence fields and are not scored until conveyance routing and hydrologic independence are defined.
| Rank | HYBAS ID | Local accumulation | Elevation | Slope | Score | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 10525094 | 1,751,044 | 48 m | 1.04° | 90.3 | SCREEN PASSED |
| #2 | 10525036 | 1,749,662 | 50 m | 1.80° | 79.6 | SCREEN PASSED |
| #3 | 10525003 | 1,714,958 | 51 m | 1.80° | 77.9 | SCREEN PASSED |
| #4 | 10525118 | 223,240 | 46 m | 0.35° | 30.0 | CONSISTENCY REVIEW |
| #5 | 10525106 | 228,494 | 42 m | 2.48° | 0.2 | CONSISTENCY REVIEW |
Preliminary screening only. A high score does not establish engineering feasibility, water rights, environmental acceptability, channel stability, water quality, or final intake location. Flagged candidates require reconciliation of HydroSHEDS and locally derived accumulation before advancement.
Live data layer
NASA IMERG near-real-time feed
HydroFlow checks NASA IMERG Early Run products for the Baja California Sur region. The feed refreshes every 30 minutes; NASA Early Run itself has processing latency, so this is near-real-time rather than instantaneous.
30-minute
Waiting for latest product
Resolution: 0.1° / ~10 km
Rolling 3-hour
Waiting for latest product
Resolution: 0.1° / ~10 km
Rolling 1-day
Waiting for latest product
Resolution: 0.1° / ~10 km
HydroFlow calculation engine · locked baseline check
Rainfall input
6.00 in
Rain volume
1.043T gal
Modeled runoff
364.9B gal
Modeled runoff
1,119,990 AF
This engine now computes rainfall volume and runoff from the locked area and runoff coefficient instead of displaying only hard-coded totals. Live IMERG numerical rainfall will plug into the same function once basin extraction is connected.
Incoming NASA products are kept separate from the frozen POLO-HF-001 forecast. Next engineering step is basin clipping and numerical precipitation extraction for automatic runoff calculations.
6 in · 10,000 mi² · 35% runoff · ~365B gal. Live data can score this prediction but cannot rewrite it.
HydroFlow endpoint checked: connecting… · Browser refresh interval: 30 minutes.
POLO-HF-001 sensitivity matrix
| Rain | Runoff coefficient | Modeled runoff | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4" | 20% | 139B gal | LOW |
| 6" | 35% | 365B gal | CENTRAL · LOCKED |
| 8" | 50% | 695B gal | HIGH |
| 10" | 50% | 869B gal | EXTREME SENSITIVITY |
These are stress-test calculations, not measured Polo runoff. The 6-inch / 35% case is the frozen central scenario.
Pacific network
Santo Domingo / Comondú
Screen the mountain-to-alluvial-plain pathway for slowing, tributary desynchronization, off-channel detention and managed recharge. This is the first Polo modeling box, not a final engineering site selection.
Gulf network
Loreto / Mulegé
Treat the Gulf drainage separately across the peninsula divide. Flood protection leads until recharge geology, groundwater conditions and water quality are screened.
Storage = time
Detention sensitivity
500 AF
163M gal
1,000 AF
326M gal
2,500 AF
815M gal
5,000 AF
1.63B gal
STORM MODE
Minimize dangerous downstream peak flow.
Use forecast timing, natural/NIDS attenuation, tributary desynchronization and active detention to create time and protect people.
RECOVERY MODE
Maximize safe recharge and storage after the peak.
Shift detained water toward verified recharge/storage while maintaining safe release, water-quality and groundwater constraints.
Norma calibration
Calibrate the mechanism before claiming scale
Hurricane Norma is the calibration/validation event for the Los Planes natural-infrastructure work. Observed meteorology and stream response should calibrate timing and attenuation where records permit. Polo remains prospective until observations are available.
HydroFlow Beta 1.0 decision rule
Do not build storage simply where the most water can be captured. Control water where each acre-foot produces the greatest reduction in dangerous peak flow, then recover as much of that detained water as geology and water quality safely allow.
Peak CFS eliminated / active detention AF
AF safely recharged or stored / AF diverted